Saturday, 26 February 2011

Moderate Risk - 27th February 2011

So the Models have changed for the better and my earlier target still holds, would be based in Oklahoma City tonight for the virtual World and target the Kansas and Oklahoma Border along the I-35 Corridoor in the hopes something can fire along he dryline before darkness falls. I dont doubt all hell will break loose over Arkansas and Missouri tomorrow overnight but this really is not chaseable unless you want lots of wind and rain with embedded Tornadoes in the trees.

Will await tomorrows models to see if it is North from Ok City or sit tight to see how the ejecting Low behaves. One thing is for sure another day with Warp speed Storms.

Slight Risk Sunday 27th Feb

Well the overnight Models have complicated things for this Set-Up. GFS More Favourable than the NAM But even that looks like it will have problems getting Lift off before Dark (Around 00z) So with this is Mind it looks like a Big Old Wind and Rain event in SE Kansas, NE Oklahoma, SW Missouri and the Arklatex. Dryline may fire something before Sunset but not looking as good as it did a few days ago.

With this in mind would Refine the Virtual Chase Target and move from Oklahoma City to Tulsa today and await tonights Models to split the difference between the 2 Risk areas.

Friday, 25 February 2011

Sunday 17th Feb

At the Moment lets just say I dont agree with the SPC With their risk area for Sunday ?? The Models we can look at for the T72 Range are showing a pretty solid set-up for Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma along the Dryline.

So at the moment would be Virtually hanging tight in Ok City favouring the Better option along the I-35 Corridoor.

Yesterday was a typical early season Moderate over the Arklatex, Jet Speed Storms, grungy and Line Segments, picking a Tornado out of the Date is like diving into a Haystack for that Illusive Needle.

Chase Target Update later tomorrow

Wednesday, 23 February 2011

24th February - Moderate Risk

As expected the first real Tornado Risk of the year is almost upon us, SPC Have a SWODY2 (Severe Weather Outlook Day 2) MODERATE Risk for mainly Dixie Alley. Most models are deepening the Low now and a few options have favourable Warm Front scenarios extending east North-Eatwards from the Low, Mid 60f Dewpoints looking likely across Eastern Arkansas, Western Tennessee and Mississippi later on the 24th and favourable Conditions further east should get the job done but it might be later in the day and after darkness for these areas so not easy to chase on 2 counts. A, Terrain and B, Nightfall.

If a few Supercells can ride along the Warm Front and not cross the boundary then a few Stronger Tornadoes are Possible mainly in Eastern, and North Eastern Arkansas, Western and North Western Tennessee and the Missouri Bootheel.

I guess there will be quite a few of the Storm Deprived chasing this so I guess Severe Studios or ChaserTv will be busy with the early Season chasers!!

Sunday, 20 February 2011

1st Major Severe Weather Outbreak

Well it seems the 24th February is going to be the First Major Storm System of the Year and for Dixie Alley which would fit the bill of a La Nina Winter & Early Spring. This looks like a Potent Trough with enough Moisture to make it a Multiple Tornado Day. At the moment from the Models it is looking like the Bootheel of S Missouri, Arklatex, Tennessee and maybe even Kentucky areas that could get Strong Tornadoes. We still have to see where any Mesoscale Features crop up but a Triple Point of Dryline and Warm Front near the Low Centre currently looks favourite.

Will Update a Virtual Chase Target on Tuesday!

Wednesday, 9 February 2011

Harsh Winter - Active Spring ??

Well after last years above average Snowy Winter for the Plains and subsequent Active 2010 Tornado Season maybe we should be eagerly looking forward to the April, May and June Season.

The Plains and indeed most of the US Has had incredible Temperatures and Snowfall over the past 30 days, temperatures in Oklahoma City earlier today touched -17c with -20c further West in the Oklahoma Panhandle, another 20" of Snowfall occured in Kansas with widely 4-6" across parts of Oklahoma, Texas mostly escaped this latest onslaught but got caught by last weeks Snowstorms. I really believe this will stand us in good stead once again for an Active Season.

2005 & 2006 were dreadful Springs for rotating Storms and Moisture return due mainly to the Harsh drought conditions over most of Central and Southern Texas over the winter period. I still think the Texas Panhandle and Western Kansas could do with a lot more Spring rain or the Dryline could be mixed much further East this Spring favouring Eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas and Iowa, hopefully not as those chases become hard east of I-35.

The Models are painting a typical Continental Climate picture for later next week with temperatures into the 60's and even show 70's with good moisture for the end of the month with a much more Zonal Flow so maybe some Chasing chances by the end of February and Start of March, it will be interesting seeing how the Moisture is affected when that 1st System crashes through.

Will Update Again Soon

Best

Paul

Saturday, 5 February 2011

6 Days and 6 Miles Apart

As the title says May 25th and May 31st would become great Tornado days in SE Colorado and in Places that are separated by just 6 Miles. Walsh and Campo just South of Springfield and near the Oklahoma Panhandle Border gave us 2 Classic Supercells that both produced stunning Tornadoes

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=storm-chase-highlights;sess= 31st May 2010

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IHuTozLIwU - 25th May 2010 (Walsh)