Sunday, 3 April 2011
3rd April 2011 - Target Zone
Well having viewed the 00z GFS & NAM My drive to Topeka (Kansas) would hold us in really good stead at the moment. All the Models are pointing to Eastern Kansas and the Triple Point play from an area bounded by Emporia - Topeka - Kansas City. Both Models break out precip at around 22z and then extend it further down the Dryline, current thinking is about 3 hours to get the job done before the Cold Front comes crashing through and makes it a linear mess evolving into a Eastward moving MCS at around 03z. Easterly surface winds and decent directional shear should get a few Tornadoes to spin up in this area, and would expect a 5% Hatched from the SPC In their 08z Update. Some massive Cape Monster Hail Storms could go up much further South with 3,000jkg of Cape with surface temps of 92f and Dewpoints of 68f all point to High Based Hailers further down the dryline.