Monday, 25 April 2011

Monday 25th April 2011 Chase Target

Well the next 3 days are looking incredibly active as we have back to back Moderate Risks for 25/4 and 26/4 this will in my opinion have every chance for a High Risk on Wednesday 27th.
Back to today and I think the trick will be to get yourself in a good chase position relative to where Storms will fire. By 3pm the Convective Crapvection boundary should be well into Missouri and the warm front lifting through Arkansas, I have a feeling the Warm Front will be North of LTR By 4pm and Storms should be firing in North East Texas and North West Louisiana, these will stream North Eastwards and have the greatest chance of Tornadogenesis before they hit the cold boundary and cross the Warm Front. Cape of around 2,000jkg and close T/D spreads should have LCL's favourable. A lot of people completely write of Arkansas due to trees and hills.......................but the areas East of Little Rock and Pine Bluff has around 100 miles of flat rice fields right up till you hit Memphis. So with this in mind just like 30th April and 1st May last year will sit in Stuttgart for today and pick the storms off as they move into more favourable chase terrain.

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