After a leisurely 2 day drive from Big Spring to Sioux City we had a chase in parts of South Dakota and Minnesota today. SPC has a small 2% Tornado risk box over Southern Minnesota and Eastern Minnesota along a warm front. Things had trended downwards overnight and things did not look great for tornadoes on morning model runs. We left and had lunch and then headed north into extreme south-west Minnesota. The warm front further east as expected had been contaminated with overnight clouds and rain. Our main play was storms that had fired earlier in Eastern South Dakota that crossed a weak frontal boundary and moved into mid 60's dewpoints. About this time storms were starting to congeal with each other from contaminated outflows so things were not looking great and all we got really was an outflow dominant shelf cloud. Not great for a 1100 mile drive north only for us to get back to Colorado and New Mexico over the last 4 days of the trip. If only we had a crystal ball eh ?
Below : Shelf Cloud in SW Minnesota