Thursday 31 March 2011

Another Active Period of Severe Weather 3-5th April 2011

Well it looks like we now have another 3 Day period of Active Weather coming up in the Plains and Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys ending Tuesday in Florida by the way all the Models are in collaboration at the moment. Saturday 2nd Looks like a Cap Bust Day so not really going to focus on that at all. First Attention has to be wether anything can go up along the Dryline on Sunday 3rd April. Temperatures in Oklahoma and Western North Texas looking likely to be in the High 80's and with Rich Moisture in place and a steep Dewpoint Gradient along a sharp dryline you would think it would be game on. Current Spreads West of Oklahoma City show 87/69 for Sunday which is a tad toasty and the spread a tad high to get the job done. Problems I see is how is the Cap going to get broken with the Low Pressure currently looking to track along the Kansas and Nebraska Border, you are going to have to rely on the Dryline Bulging in a certain place and hoping the LLJ Cranks up early enough to create the lift. This will be a gamble based on current models at the moment, do you get a Lone Dryline Supercell to yourselves or some serious Sunburn. Much better chances exist further North of the LP, GFS 18z Model now breaking out a Lone Supercell in the Sand Hills Region of Nebraska tracking into South Dakota near to Valentine at 00z. With this in Mind would be sitting tight in Hays (Kansas) at the moment and splitting the difference until we can get more cross model agreement before Saturday.

1 comment:

  1. Latest Model Guidence now showing where the trigger will come from, SE Moving Cold Front looks to disect the Dryline over the Eastern Half of Oklahoma and that will kick off Supercells around the 22z Timeframe Sunday!