Wednesday, 13 April 2011
14th April - Moderate Risk
As expected in yesterday's Blog the SPC Have indeed upgraded to Moderate Risk. 45% Hatched is not to be taken lightly on a SWODY2 but still differences in the Models from wether this is going to be a Classic Tornado event or a Moderate Risk for High Winds, the Hatched Hail Risk should also be quite High for tomorrow with upto Baseball Sized Hail expected. At the Moment there are 2 plays in town, the Cold Core Set Up in North East Kansas down to Eastern Kansas, then the Dryline Risk extending down through Central Oklahoma. NAM Model is slower than GFS And would give better chasing areas to play with. Todays model runs are crucial wether we get a higher Tornado Hatched box or a High Wind Hatched box, due to what the winds are going to do along the dryline and the positioning of the LP.