Thursday, 14 April 2011
April 14th 2011 Chase Target
Had a quick look over the morning's models and have settled on my Chase Target for today based on a quick blend of the GFS & NAM Obviously wont be able to refine it on the RUC etc as work commitments stop me having Internet access today. Very much liking the Ardmore - Mcalister - Hugo Triangle and somewhere in there for a Supercell to Develop and move off the Dryline, LCL's are just about favourable the further North in that triangle and T/td Spreads look very nice at 73/62 which should have those bases very low. South South East surface flow with stronger South Westerlies at H5 to help initiate something down there at 00z. My main concern about further North is the Moisture, only 62f just above the Texas Coastline atm and only 20knt Winds transporting that moisture northwards makes it a race against time for moisture return. Hodo's very nice along the length of the risk area and I'd expect 1 or 2 Strongish Tornadoes around the EF3 Mark to occur today.Tomorrow looks very nasty if a few Supercells can get going ahead of the Line in Eastern Mississippi, that as well could go High Risk tomorrow. Good luck to all chasing today in what could be challenging chase conditions east of US75!