Saturday, 23 April 2011

Mother Nature Is A Cruel Woman!

Well just 4 days until we arrive at the hotel at Heathrow and get ready for the flight on Thursday. The next 5-6 days look great for chasing with multiple rounds of Severe Weather across the Southern portion of the US. We already have 470 prelimary reports of Tornadoes for April and this could easily go over the 550+ mark by 29th April. Now onto when we land and it is looking woeful I am afraid, all the active weather since the 14th April will be on it's way out into the Atlantic and a ridge is looking like setting up across the Intermountain West for about 6 of 7 days it seems. Chasing has been looking limited to non existent for the first week of May with no energy building up and an absent Jet Stream Pattern but the 06z GFS gives slight hope the pattern might not be as bad with possibilities around the 3rd & 4th. There are signs if the ridge sets up it could breakdown around the 6th May and something could be chaseable around the 7th or 8th but GFS Is usually the faster model and dont be surprised at the time if the ECMWF Model delays this which could make for a race against time for our tour 1 guests as to wether anything severe crops up. Hoping the Models change in the next 3-4 days.

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