Saturday, 9 April 2011
Saturday 9th April 2011 - Chase Target
Having awoken to the expected Moderate Risk upgrade in Des Moines would be probably staying put for now and awaiting the better fine scale Meso Models later on. Expecting quite a few Tornadoes to occur today along an E-W Warm Front that should by 23z be lying across the far north of Iowa. I am expecting the first Storms to fire around the NE - SE Nebraska region and track up towards Southern Minnesota and with time move more eastwards enhancing more of a Tornado Risk. Cape values of 3,000jkg and ample helicity look very nice, forecast skew-t's and hodo's in Northern Iowa and S Minnesota also look favourable in a 3 hour window from 23-02z. Another area that has now come into the fray is the Central Oklahoma To S Central Kansas area along a bulging Dryline, LCL Heights look favourable down here and winds eventually look like backing to the SE, one of the most important things for a great Tornado Set-Up which is not yet resolved could be residual Outflow Boundaries from Friday 8th April's Storms. We all know how good OBs can be with regards to Cycling Supercells dropping Tornado after Tornado. This Set-Up although not the same synoptically reminds me of the 24th May 2008 when everyone and their dog were up in NE Nebraska and NW Iowa when a lone Supercell latched onto an old Outflow Boundary and rampaged across Kingfisher and Garfield Counties dropping tube after tube, One to watch for sure in much better chase terrain. Tomorrow as expected looks to be going HIGH Risk as I said a few days ago, Models if anything looking even better for Wisconsin and there could be multiple rounds of Long Track Tornadic Supercells across this region tomorrow.