Sunday 10 April 2011

Sunday April 10th 2011 - Chase Target

After yesterday's Long Track Cyclic Supercell dropped the Impressive Wedge which rode underneath the warm front today sees round 2. Today looks a carbon copy but a tad further North and East. I am liking the starting point of La Crosse, which should be firmly in the warm sector at 21z from latest models and crucially below the warm front. I have worries about how rich the moisture will be further into Northern parts of Wisconsin, only seeing mid to upper fifties dewpoints up there but the T/D Spreads look favourable with good LCL's, predicted Cape looks to be 2,000 to 2,500jkg and the area of interest lies at the left exit of the Jet like yesterday was. Storm motions going to be racing along at 50-60kts and given the more challenging terrain this looks so much harder than Western Iowa was yesterday and potentially more dangerous. Latest RUC Models shows a nice Supercell breaking out in NE Iowa and tracking towards SW Wisconsin area so would probably head a tad further East towards Tomah along Interstate 94 to give good road options. Good luck to all out chasing today.

1 comment:

  1. As Usual and to keep it real will post thoughts on the Moderate Risk Outbreak in Wisconsin. Would have started east of La Crosse and would have headed NW Up towards Eau Claire for the first cells that fired. Now there was a Tornado on that cell East of Eau Claire but the nature of these Supercells were very HP & Rain Wrapped so yes the target verified but like everyone else the lack of pictures is telling that these Storms were very junky and hard to see picturesque Tornadoes. Happy with the target though.