Thursday 31 March 2011

Another Active Period of Severe Weather 3-5th April 2011

Well it looks like we now have another 3 Day period of Active Weather coming up in the Plains and Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys ending Tuesday in Florida by the way all the Models are in collaboration at the moment. Saturday 2nd Looks like a Cap Bust Day so not really going to focus on that at all. First Attention has to be wether anything can go up along the Dryline on Sunday 3rd April. Temperatures in Oklahoma and Western North Texas looking likely to be in the High 80's and with Rich Moisture in place and a steep Dewpoint Gradient along a sharp dryline you would think it would be game on. Current Spreads West of Oklahoma City show 87/69 for Sunday which is a tad toasty and the spread a tad high to get the job done. Problems I see is how is the Cap going to get broken with the Low Pressure currently looking to track along the Kansas and Nebraska Border, you are going to have to rely on the Dryline Bulging in a certain place and hoping the LLJ Cranks up early enough to create the lift. This will be a gamble based on current models at the moment, do you get a Lone Dryline Supercell to yourselves or some serious Sunburn. Much better chances exist further North of the LP, GFS 18z Model now breaking out a Lone Supercell in the Sand Hills Region of Nebraska tracking into South Dakota near to Valentine at 00z. With this in Mind would be sitting tight in Hays (Kansas) at the moment and splitting the difference until we can get more cross model agreement before Saturday.

Tuesday 29 March 2011

2011 StormChase Staff

4 weeks to go so just a little info about who will be looking after the guests and their roles over the 7 weeks we are out chasing. Moi - Paul is the Lead Chaser and Driver for Tours 1 - 4 and will be responsible for Chase Targets , Chasing Decisions and Forecasts, heavily liasing with the GPS Guy on Road Options . Tom Lynch - Tom is the driver for Tours 1 & 2 and also is heavily involved in the Forecasting side of things, A veteran Storm Chaser having been out Stateside since the year 2000! Ian Cameron - Ian returns for his 5th Year Chasing with the Netweather Team and is resposible for GPS & Hospitality, sometimes called the Social Secretary he also deals with things on down days and night-time entertainment. Ian Michaelwaite - This will be Ian's 2nd year on the Team and will be the driver for Tours 1 & 2. He is also involved with the Booking of Hotels and the general admin of the Tours. Also adds Photography and Technical Support to his roles within the team. John Hanrahan - John returns for his 4th Year with Netweather (3rd as a Team Member) and is the Driver this year for Tour 3. He also takes care of the Streaming side of things as well as Technical Support. Arron Hiscox - Arron joins the team this year as the rookie helping with GPS For Tours 3 & 4. Another who is very good at all things computer related and Technical Support. Paul Michaelwaite - This will be Paul's 3rd Year helping the Netweather Team having been out chasing in 2008 and 2010 previously (Maybe he knew 2009 was going to be pants Lol) He will be the driver for Tour 4 this year and again is a dab hand at technical Support. Michael Fish MBE - Mike Returns for his 2nd Chase with the Netweather Team having previously been out at the Start of May 2008. Obviously his forecasting knowledge is first class having been a BBC Weatherman for nearly 30 years and having studied at Oklahoma University in the 1970's. So quite a diverse Team this year and one that covers all angles of the Chase From Photography to Technical Support to GPS To Driving keeping you all safe.

Thursday 24 March 2011

Still Looking Quite Active

Looking in the near term it looks like there could be some decent Chase Days to be had over the next week and I am liking the way the Season is starting to pan out with lots of disturbances ejecting across the Intermountain West.

Starting with tomorrow 25/3/11. Not much of a Tornado Risk but certainly some Elevated Supercells are possible with Large Hail the main threat. Decent GOM Moisture extending up towards the Texas & Oklahoma Border near a Stationery Warm Front should yield between 750-1,000jkg of Cape. Would look at Ardmore as a Starting position and expect to shift eastwards pretty quickly.

Saturday 26th sees the Risk transfer much further east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. If we were there (Cant wait until the 28th April Lol) would be looking at the Arkansas and Tennessee Border at the moment.

Monday 28th at the moment looks amazing on the GFS With the Southern Texas Panhandle primed for a Tornado Day, favourable winds, Dryline Set Up with Dp's up to 60f and Surface Temps of 75-80f near the Lawton - Childress - Abilene Triangle. Nice Southern Arm of the Jet racing across the region also and differing winds with height.
One to Watch and will be interesting to see if the SPC Include a Region in their 4-8 Day Outlook Tomorrow.

Sunday 20 March 2011

Models Struggling ??

Well the 19-21st Has not entirely gone to plan with the Models struggling with the handling of the Ejecting Trough. Nothing much of note for yesterday and today is in Iowa (Need we say more than that) Tomorrow holds some promise once again in Iowa along with Nebraska but when the risk is in Iowa even in May you know something will screw up along the way.

So Now the risk days have moved to 21-23rd March with Tuesday looking pretty good over much the same areas, the risk moves further towards the Ohio Valley for Wednesday 23rd.

Beyond that the Weekend could hold some promise if some of the Models verify but the way they have been behaving lately it could all go up in smoke. Nice to see active weather getting more closer together now as we move on through Early Spring and not weeks apart like it was at the start of March.

Saturday 19 March 2011

Arizona Trip Finalised

Okay it is now official we are making a trip out to Arizona in August this year to Chase the NAM Desert Monsoon. I am really excited about this as I last had this chance back in 2008 and Loved it with a few Storms down near Tuscon and up near Flagstaff, nothing near to Pheonix though as we just missed the "Burst Mode" We will be out for 11 days from August 16th until August 27th. If everything goes well we will be running these trips every year co-inciding with the Tornado Chases throughout May and June in 2012.

Thursday 17 March 2011

Japan Earthquake Ebay Auction

Ever fancied a Trip Chasing Tornadoes in the Plains this year in June with Michael Fish and also doing your bit to help the poor people of Japan after the Shocking Earthquake and Tsunami. Netweather have teamed up with the Charity Shelterbox (Who are providing Aid and Assistance to Japan at the moment) and have an Ebay Auction with 100% of the proceeds going to this Cause. The Starting bid is £99 and the online auction runs for 3 more days. You will also get a Signed Copy of Michael Fish's book "Stormforce" into the bargain.
Full Details below

Monday 14 March 2011

Severe Weather 19-21st March 2011

Okay the Models are Starting to take good shape and it looks like at least 3 Days of Severe Coming Up in the Plains.

Starting with Saturday which looks like being a pretty decent Chase Day in Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas and Nebraska. Dewpoints look okayish but not as good as Sunday 20th atm.

Sunday looks like the real player with a decent Dryline setting up over Central Oklahoma and Central Kansas, Mid 50's to Lower 60's Dewpoints with a Negative Tilt Trough, Decent Cape and roaring Jet from the SW All point to some Tornadic Supercells somewhere along the Dryline.

Will Firm up later this week on a Virtual Chase Target.

Thursday 10 March 2011

BBC Radio Essex - 10th March 2011

Lined up at 910am today on the Dave Monk Show for a Chat about Tornadoes and Storm Chasing which went really well, have a link below for anyone Interested, click the Dave Monk Show 9am-12 Noon and scroll across to 8 Minutes.

Tuesday 8 March 2011

Chase Target - 08-03-11

After finally looking at the Shifting Models have decided to Move further South and East from Ardmore down towards Paris (Texas) and hope the Dryline produces within the narrow corridoor of Moisture before the Cold Front comes crashing through and Spoiling the Party with a QLCS The Latter Mode. SPC Have the major Tornado Risk much further South East into Louisiana and I dont doubt there might be some Strong Tornadoes down there, but chasing at night and in the Swamps with the Crocs is not my idea of Fun. So if we were there we would be chasing the 2-5% Tornado Risk in North East Texas.

Monday 7 March 2011

8th March Slight Risk & Article

Still looking like a Decent Chase Day along the Red River Valley. Would virtually be in Ardmore tonight in S Central Oklahoma and hope the Dryline sets up further West so Storms dont move into the Jungles of SE Oklahoma and the restricted River Crossing of the Red River.

Also Finally Got the Evening Echo Storm Chase Write Up Online and can be viewed in the Link Below!

Friday 4 March 2011

A Pretty Eventfull Week!

Well that was a pretty damn good Week. Started off on Monday being phoned by my Local Paper and them asking about a Story to go in the Southend Evening Echo, did a Telephone Interview and Sent them about 7 Pictures, The Finished article came out in Thursday's Edition and was very well written and they used some of my better pictures and the ones I would have chosen as well. This is when the Power of the Media escalates things, unbeknown to me my Mum phones me and asks what the hell am I doing in the Daily Star (Major National Paper) of which I knew nothing about, turns out they found out about the Story in the Smaller Local paper and ran the story. It then gets even better, an Email was sent to Netweather from the biggest Press Association Company and they want to run a Story for a Major Magazine about me and the better half, so after getting her consent the wheels on that one get rolling on Monday morning with another Interview lined up at 9am.
Will update with what happens next week.

Thursday 3 March 2011

A Few More Chase Day Coming Up

Looks like a Marginal Chase Day coming Up On Friday 4th March which will be the 3rd in 8 Days in this La Nina Spring. Once again the better Moisture looks to be in the Arklatex Region or maybe even the Mississippi Valley for Early Saturday. This is not as active a Trough as Last weeks though. Next Tuesday or Wednesday could once again put the Southern Plains in the Firing Line all dependant on Moisture and where the Low Pressure Sets Up, one to watch but the signs are looking good for an Active La Nina Spring at the moment!

55 Days until we Land in Theatre!