Thursday 24 March 2011

Still Looking Quite Active

Looking in the near term it looks like there could be some decent Chase Days to be had over the next week and I am liking the way the Season is starting to pan out with lots of disturbances ejecting across the Intermountain West.

Starting with tomorrow 25/3/11. Not much of a Tornado Risk but certainly some Elevated Supercells are possible with Large Hail the main threat. Decent GOM Moisture extending up towards the Texas & Oklahoma Border near a Stationery Warm Front should yield between 750-1,000jkg of Cape. Would look at Ardmore as a Starting position and expect to shift eastwards pretty quickly.

Saturday 26th sees the Risk transfer much further east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. If we were there (Cant wait until the 28th April Lol) would be looking at the Arkansas and Tennessee Border at the moment.

Monday 28th at the moment looks amazing on the GFS With the Southern Texas Panhandle primed for a Tornado Day, favourable winds, Dryline Set Up with Dp's up to 60f and Surface Temps of 75-80f near the Lawton - Childress - Abilene Triangle. Nice Southern Arm of the Jet racing across the region also and differing winds with height.
One to Watch and will be interesting to see if the SPC Include a Region in their 4-8 Day Outlook Tomorrow.

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